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When Evaluating the Charlottesville Real Estate Market, IGNORE National Data

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Take your lede : – Home sales up 14% in Charlottesville and Albemarle year over year. – Home sales up 19% in Charlottesville MSA year over year. – Foreclosures continue to climb in Charlottesville and Albemarle. – Questions abound regarding second half of 2010; where will we find the bottom of the market? – If you have questions about or would like more detailed analysis, please contact me.

…Simple (though notsoumuch in reality) What I’m reading: – Harvard’s State of the Nation’s Housing Market (PDF) and listening to an excellent podcast with Nicholas Retsinas , Director, Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies . (did you know that there was an exhibit at the Smithsonian on McMansions ?) – Core Logic’s Home Price Index Report for April 2010 – Virginia’s Housing Price Index, for single family homes year-over-year, is up 6.5%; for single family homes excluding distressed properties, is up 3.6%. Virginia is one of the five best states for year-over-year price appreciation excluding distressed sales .. but mostly that’s irrelevant in my opinion as the bulk of those sales are most likely comprised of Northern Virginia sales. – The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index for First Quarter 2010 The FHFA (formerly OFHEO) say that in the Charlottesville MSA house prices have dropped 6.98% year over year, 1.86& in the 1st Quarter 2010, and have appreciated 12.68% over the past 5 years .

… Home Sales are Up 19% year over year in the Charlottesville MSA: Sales are up in Charlottesville MSA Year over year.jpg Homes sales are UP 14% in Charlottesville and Albemarle : Home Sales UP in Charlottesville and Albemarle - 2010 versus 2009.jpg One point: Charlottesville’s Unemployment is lower than the national average. Charlottesville's Unemployment is lower than the national average. Prime example of the irrelevance of national, aggregate housing data, which is good only for political talking points and respective agendas: Foreclosure starts for the nation and Charlottesville and Albemarle: National foreclosure data, courtesy of the HUD Scorecard, using RealtyTrac data: National Foreclosure data - Mildly irrelevant For Charlottesville, using RealtyTrac : Charlottesville Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information - may 2010 For Albemarle County, using RealtyTrac: Albemarle County Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information - Trends Albemarle County Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information - May 2010 What have median home prices done in Charlottesville over the past five years?

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Twitter Week in Review – Some Real Estate Conversations, Some Off-Topic

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Great caller on @ CSPAN just now “throw them all the hell out and start a *real* third party” response “…and we’ll leave it right there” 🙂 #

… @ jolenta Long day of showing ahead tomorrow; I’ll get it done tonight w/ @docusign’s help and be done. in reply to jolenta #

… #SMCCVille’s Event today – Traditional Media and Social Media – If you can’t make it, ask questions using # SMCCVille http://post.ly/JcSM #

… RT @tgonser: @ JimDuncan Dying to know the answer to “I love DocuSign but…” The blog image shows a red x.[try this http://bit.ly/4SCPdU ] #

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Charlottesville Real Estate Market – Inventory Update 2010

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Not much has changed since I wrote in August of 2009 that regarding the Charlottesville real estate market, We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know . … What new construction in Charlottesville is going to do in 2010. (how many building permits, how many builders, what Ryan Homes are going to do – read: continue their dominance) What the hell the government is going to do with their incessant manipulations of markets through home buyer tax credits, foreclosure moratoriums, cramdowns of loans …

… Charlottesville MSA unemployment rate For an example of why national and other regions’ real estate analyses and forecasts just aren’t relevant when you’re trying to get a handle on the Charlottesville real estate market, take a look at this analysis from Ventura County, California : Some of the home buyers in Ventura County have lost the excitement of home shopping. … Cash buyers, and home buyers with 10-20% downpayment, have a strong advantage of being much more likely to have have their offers accepted.

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