From the most recent CAAR news monthly (archived: 2006) –
Statistics show that the average consumer follows a well-defined housing cycle. In his book The Roaring 2000’s, Harry S. Dent, Jr. uses statistical averages to define the housing cycle as follows:
By Age 25 – Become apartment dwellers
By Age 33 – Become first-time homebuyers
By Age 44 – Trade-up to a larger home
By Age 52 – Buy a vacation home
By Age 65 – Buy a retirement home
Of course these are “average” homebuyers which we all know don’t exist, but the cycle is valid in predicting the market trends. If we apply this housing cycle to the generation waves (boomers, X’ers, and the new-boomers), we can easily and accurately predict housing trends.
These numbers are wildly off-base for the Charlottesville/Central Virginia market. With the glut of cheap money on the mortgage market, almost anybody can afford to purchase something. One’s “dream house” may be a couple of houses off in the timeline, but there are options out there in our market. The crazy real estate market of the past 5 to 7 years has, in my opinion, pushed this timeline up by at least five, if not ten years.
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I have been been representing buyers and sellers in Charlottesville, Albemarle, and Central Virginia since 2001. Get local insight born of experience.
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