From the most recent CAAR news monthly –
Statistics show that the average consumer follows a well-defined housing cycle. In his book The Roaring 2000’s, Harry S. Dent, Jr. uses statistical averages to define the housing cycle as follows:
By Age 25 â€“ Become apartment dwellersâ€¨By Age 33 â€“ Become first-time homebuyersâ€¨By Age 44 â€“ Trade-up to a larger homeâ€¨By Age 52 â€“ Buy a vacation homeâ€¨By Age 65 â€“ Buy a retirement home
Of course these are â€œaverageâ€ homebuyers which we all know don’t exist, but the cycle is valid in predicting the market trends. If we apply this housing cycle to the generation waves (boomers, X’ers, and the new-boomers), we can easily and accurately predict housing trends.
These numbers are wildly off-base for the Charlottesville/Central Virginia market. With the glut of cheap money on the mortgage market, almost anybody can afford to purchase something. One’s “dream house” may be a couple of houses off in the timeline, but there are options out there in our market. The crazy real estate market of the past 5 to 7 years has, in my opinion, pushed this timeline up by at least five, if not ten years.