National Housing Numbers Mean What for the Charlottesville Real Estate Market?

I was saving this post and data for Friday, but the release of the national housing data spurred me to publish today.

Why June and July rather than just June or just July? Both are post-tax-credit months and are indicators of the state of the Charlottesville real estate market.

Keep the national data in the proper context; that data is meaningful, but not as meaningful as data localized for your real estate market.

See the raw data used for the charts below.*

Charlottesville and Albemarle Attached home sales – June and July for the past decade:

Charlottesville & Albemarle Attached Home Sales - June & July

Charlottesville and Albemarle Single Family home sales – June and July for the past decade:

Charlottesville & Albemarle Single Family Home Sales - June & July

Charlottesville MSA Attached Home Sales – July for the past decade:

  Charlottesville MSA Attached Home Sales - June & July

Charlottesville MSA – Single Family Home Sales – June and July for the past decade:

Charlottesville MSA Single Family Home Sales - June & July

So … what are home prices doing in the Charlottesville MLS**?

– The moving median price for the past 200 days shows stability.

– The moving median price for the past 90 days shows what may be a coming decline.

– The moving median price for the past 200 days shows stability.

– The moving median price for the past 7 days shows that the Charlottesville real estate market has transactional volume sufficient to be swayed by even a few transactions.

Moving Median Average for Charlottesville MLS - 30 Days

Looking at the moving median home price for the Charlottesville MLS for the past year,we see the spike attributable to the housing tax credit and either what could be the bottom or the first dip.

Moving Median Average for Charlottesville MLS - One year

And now for the past five years:

Moving Median Average for Charlottesville MLS - Five years

And really, if you’re surprised by this drop, you haven’t been paying attention; we’ve been seeing these trends in the Charlottesville housing data for quite some time.



But no matter when one thinks summer ends, it’s already way past obvious that the Obama administration’s “Recovery Summer” has been and will end up being a big, fat, embarrassing failure.

Not to get too political, but I’m tired of seeing taxpayer dollars spent to try to sell us campaign fictions when we need real leadership. Please don’t try to shine up a bag of crap and sell it to me as a bag of sunshine and rainbows. It’s disingenuous, dishonest, disrespectful.

Related News:

Housing: No Longer A Sure-Fire Wealth Builder – The Big Picture

The Impact Housing Inventory Has on Prices – Keeping Matters Current

Housing Market Insight – Week of August 23rd – Bigger Pockets Blog

Housing: Still Widely Misunderstood – The Big Picture

Existing Home Sales Plummet 27& – The Big Picture

Existing Home Inventory decreases 1.9% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk

Existing Home Sales lowest since 1996, 12.5 months of supply – Calculated Risk

* You won’t find this data anywhere else.:)

** Charlottesville MLS = Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, Louisa … Rockbridge, Madison, Orange, Waynesboro, Augusta and others that aren’t part of the Charlottesville MSA or region.

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6 Comments

  1. Ryan Hinricher August 25, 2010 at 09:29

    Thanks for the pingback on my housing market update on Bigger Pockets. I appreciate the mention!

    Ryan

    Reply
  2. Kate White August 25, 2010 at 10:32

    I was thinking about what you might say Jim, after listening to this story on NPR. It was interesting to note that homes in Manassas, VA, just north of us have actually gone up. I am preparing a blog for Belvedere. We just had an awesome residents meeting. We now have 47 homes sold in Belvedere with quite a good line up of spec houses on the Boulevard for the Parade of Homes. We feel lucky here in Belvedere. Still lots of interest although the summer was very dry after a very active spring. I still Belvedere is a shining gem of a real estate project, with much more on the horizon.

    Reply
  3. John Doe August 25, 2010 at 10:44

    Doesn’t the pricing “stability” help account for how low the sales are? ;0) Let’s face it: There’d be a lot more sales if buyers and sellers weren’t currently in a standoff here, as they are nationally. This area has done worse than other areas of the country, and the Commonwealth.

    It’s great the Belvedere blogger loves her neighborhood, since comps, and that all-important “tax assessment” for her property, are lower than what she paid. But if you’re not planning on moving any time soon, price doesn’t really matter, right?

    Reply
    1. Kate White August 25, 2010 at 11:48

      JD, amazingly, our assessment has not dropped much. Yep. Still happy in Belvedere! Making improvements all the time.

      Reply
  4. Mark August 25, 2010 at 13:10

    I think enough taxpayer money has been used in support of the real estate, construction, and lending industries. It’s time to let the chips fall where they may.

    As someone who keenly watches listings, it seems that in the Charlottesville area nice houses sell easily and quickly. Crappy houses built durign the boom (on ski slope-type grades, crammed alongside the neighbors’, in the middle of nowhere, etc) aren’t selling easily and quickly.

    “Nice” and “crappy” are subjective, but as a Supreme Court Justice once said about something elese, “I know it when I see it.”

    Reply
  5. Pingback: Real Estate Round Up – Charlottesville Real Estate Market Update – May 2011 | RealCentralVA.com

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