Case Shiller Doesn’t Track Charlottesville’s MSA – or – Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter Report

I’ve said it before. Case Shiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville real estate market summed up in one phrase: it doesn’t exist.

As I said this morning on Google+ –

So we’re getting ready to widely release Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter 2012 Nest Report … there’s some interesting data and analysis in there.

Combined with the reports I’m hearing from agents about the massive traffic at open houses, I’m thinking that *pockets* of the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate markets are likely to see some stability & even price increases this year.

As far as Case-Shiller and the NAR? They don’t track our market. They’re good insofar as they give insight into other markets and their respective psychological impacts are interesting but not particularly relevant to our local market.

What we’re seeing is this:

– Buyer activity is up. Way up, over the past few months and years

– Multiple offers on desirable properties are becoming almost common place

– Foreclosures and short sales are going to be with us for a long time

– Buyers want to buy. They just don’t want to buy crap or overpriced homes.

– (some) Sellers are becoming more realistic.

As a sign of positivity:

In the Charlottesville MSA in Jan 1-30 2011, 161 properties went under contract. This year, that # is 183. Not bad.Ed Skykes with NBC 29 reported on the Nest Report and this is one of the key snips (archived: 2018):

But even with good news, he says there is still uncertainty.  Duncan stated, “No one’s calling a bottom by any stretch. I’ve written and said for years that we’re not going to know bottom until we have a year or two of hindsight. But right now, in our microcosm, we’re seeing very positive activity.”