I write these notes every month. This is the link to this one on Substack, where you can subscribe. I post them here because much like real estate, I rent at Substack and I own here.

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Issue #188

Hi. My name is Jim. And I’m a real human (or person). You never know nowadays. 🙂

As a human, I apologize for emailing the video of my previewing this note!

This month: beyond the headlines, AstraZeneca, phones can be good, harmony, difficult clients, listening review, and a village. Plus, what I’m reading and listening to.

I know I say this most months: this is long, and I think it’s interesting. I’m curious what you think.

There’s a lot here, and this month’s thread is presence, showing up, and what’s trying to make that optional.

The Headline

From October 2025: AstraZeneca plans to increase investment and scope of its (Albemarle) manufacturing facility to $4.5 billion, creating 3,600 new jobs — 3000 of which apparently will be short-term, and 600 long-term.

Right now, there are 20 results when searching public remarks in the MLS for “Zeneca;” (one of those is one of my now-under-contract listings) it will be interesting to see how this plays out. It’s going to be big, but likely not 3,600 jobs big.

(Always read beyond the headlines)

“In the near term, the project is expected to create 600 highly skilled jobs and roughly 3,000 construction roles, with first production targeted in four to five years. The company says the site will lean on AI, automation and data analytics across operations, according to a press release.”

I’d argue that construction roles are also highly skilled jobs, but what do I know?

Quick Data

I rode my e-bike to meet a client and rode past another client’s house who had bought the property about a dozen year ago. I sent him an email to check in. They no longer live here, and rent it out. He asked, “How is the market and the vibe generally for single family homes within the city?” in the context of “We might move back there one day.” Next month, “Outside Looking In.” But for now –

Question for you: What Data Interests You? Some of the questions I think you may be curious about:

• What are interest rates doing? I always ask local lenders, but HousingWire is a good level-set because they look at locked rates across the spectrum, not just top tier quotes. (Note: the American war in Iran is driving these.)
  

  

   

• Inventory: How many homes are for sale? Is that normal? More than normal? Fewer?
  • Part of me thinks this is more of a real estate analyst question than a buyer or seller question — my clients want to know if they could or should buy a house right now, and if they could or should sell a house right now.Broad inventory and absorption rates are conversational numbers; specific-to-my-micro-market numbers are actionable.

From 1/1/2025 to 6/19/2025 vs 1/1/2026 to 6/19/2026, resale homes in Charlottesville + Albemarle:

• New listings: 1,279 in 2025 and 1,335 in 2026
• Contracts: 878 and 944
• # under contract in 10 days or less: 503 and 493

I’m sure I could find a way to count the number of times I’ve written “bifurcation” this year, but there’s no way to count how many times I’ve said that to clients.

The Charlottesville–Albemarle resale market is more active than a year ago, and a little less frantic, which isn’t a contradiction.

Through June 19 we’ve seen more new listings (1,335 vs 1,279) and more contracts (944 vs 878, up 7.5%) than the same stretch in 2025. But. the slice of those contracts with days on market of ten days or less shifted from 57% to 52%.

More homes are going to contract — a bit fewer are doing so instantly. (Note: 1 day on market is the same as 4 days on market.) That’s the bifurcation widening: price and present your home well and it still moves fast; miss on either and you’ll sit, because buyers finally have a few more choices and they’re taking the time to use them.

 

 

 

 

What would you do if I told you your house wouldn’t be on Zillow?

What if I told you my company advised against Zillow?

I’d expect you to maybe thank me and move on to the to the Realtor who would present your house on Zillow.

One or two big national companies are pushing to fragment real estate search — to create exclusivity of inventory so that they control their segment of the market place, and I’d argue, likely harm their clients and the market as a whole.

My buyers want to see all the homes available and I want them to see all the homes available.

My sellers want their homes to be seen by all the buyers.

Zillow has the most eyeballs and is where everyone looks.

This data war is one that affects every aspect of the real estate market: buyers, sellers, Realtors, appraisers, tax assessors, insurance companies. Everything.

How will I do data analysis? How will any other Realtor if they have to go to five, six, seven different sites in order to hopefully get the right data?

I don’t often put links in the body of my notes, but these warrant a shift in practice:

• Opinion: Compass has made the MLS its proxy
• What Happens When Zillow Stops Playing Nice?
• Unpacking the fight for real estate’s future (podcast)

On that last one in particular — I’ve had clients move from the US to France (lucky!). They’ve described real estate there exactly as Leo says in the podcast:

“But she came up to me and she goes, Leo, let me just tell you how horrible it is to sell real estate here (in southern France). I have to go to eight different websites. I have to go to the portals like L’Orange and all the other ones, and then I have to go to Remax and KW and eXp, and that may get me 60 percent of the inventory.”

That is the future if the people pushing for fragmentation win.

Others have written more eloquently than I: the argument is simple — the MLS and Zillow offer the best, most efficient, and most envied real estate search system in the world. We should keep it.

Consumers, ask your agent their position. If they try to pitch you on marketing only to a limited audience, ask why. And ask why again. (And if they don’t know about it, I’d ask that question, too.)

A colleague said to me recently, “Our industry has been under attack my entire career; what’s another thing?” What I wrote above will be outdated by the time you read this, but the battle will be ongoing.

My loyalty isn’t to Zillow; it’s to my buyers seeing every home and my sellers being seen by every buyer. Zillow’s where that happens now, and I’m watching them too.

I sent a draft of this note to a new client; they responded in part, “I love Zillow and Redfin. I look at Zillow all the time not only for Charlottesville, but also about eight other places. No I don’t want exclusive crap like Compass is proposing.”

Note: This is all evolving. See: Zillow Preview. We make it all so complicated for no valid reason.

Share

 

 

“I spoke with (the person) on the phone”

We need to do more of this. We can solve a lot using the phone.

5 minutes (or less) of a phone call can often be far, far more effective and efficient than 47 text messages where all parties get confused, angry, and frustrated, and then you need a phone call to walk back the last 43 text messages.

Just pick up the phone. (But please do not leave a voice mail unless you have to. 🙂 A text is often much more efficient).

 

Seeking Harmony with AI

My younger one successfully fought through organic chemistry. I asked her to tell me about how she used it.

1. I am proud of her.
2. I would like to think I’d do the same, but I know I wouldn’t. I took Chem101 twice, so organic chem is beyond my abilities,
3. I think how she did this is likely the best way to use AI to actually learn.

“The best case I have for AI is this : I would do practice problems for my organic chemistry class for eight hours at a time. Once I couldn’t figure out a problem using all of the methods I knew, I would turn to AI. AI would explain the problem to me step-by-step and put the answer in context using very simple terms so that I could understand and break a problem down into the simplest forms that helped me learn instead of just giving me the answer.”

Using AI in harmony with learning and doing is an evolving method. I’m writing about AI as much as I am not because I have a unique perspective, but in part because I want to document how I use AI, and how my use and perspective evolves. We are all learning, changing, and evolving.

 

Overheard: “How do you deal with difficult clients?”

I was at one of my favorite meeting-clients spots, and heard this fragment of a conversation. I wish I could have heard the rest.

Difficult clients: some are difficult because that’s who they are, but more often than not they are difficult because buying or selling, negotiating and waiting are hard and unfamiliar.

We’re dealing with huge life decisions. Huge financial changes. Big stuff.

They’re stressed, maybe scared, nervous. Or happy and excited. And all of that. All at once. Listening with real empathy helps.

 

But I do Listen (two reviews)

A client posted this review of me on Zillow recently:

We have used Jim Duncan for a couple of housing transactions over the years in Charlottesville and Crozet. I do not do many reviews but Jim deserves one. Jim is a great agent and advocate for his clients. He has many years of experience in the Charlottesville/Albemarle area and knows the market well. He is a great listener and genuinely enjoys helping clients discover and meet their life goals.

Feeling good, I sent it to my wife.

Her response:

You’re a good listener? 🙂

It takes a village

My mom was a realtor. I would give her a kid when we needed it, and she understood. I remember one time in a dicey negotiation, (formerly) small one was screaming and crying and crying and screaming. I called my mom and said, “I need you to talk to (this agent) and figure this out,” and told the other agent that my mom would be calling her. 🙂 Mom’s retired, but I just did a transaction with the other agent; I wonder if she remembers that.

How do people do it without a village?

I vividly remember when my younger one was two. We’d come home, I’d get her out of the car, she’d see her little friend and the dad. She’d run off to them and I’d tell him I’d bring him a beer in a bit so I could get a thing or two done.

It’s a little thing, and it made parenting better. Could my wife and I have done it alone? Sure. Was it better having people – family and neighbors who helped? 1’000%.

“I want to be part of a community” is a common theme amongst my buyer clients. I’m grateful we had and have it.

 

What I Wrote

• If Not Here, Where Should Houses Go? (RealCrozetVA)
• First Time Home Sellers in Charlottesville – What’s It like to Sell a Home? – I love this story, because it a) helps educate people about the home sale process and b) I have had this conversation so many times, this post will help me have better first conversations with seller clients.
• Happy Homeownership Day (on a bicycle)

What I’m Reading

• The Housing Shortage Is a Price We All Vote to Keep. — I’m going to expand on this later, as it’s 100% relevant to Central Virginia. (Bolding mine:) “So what actually changes (affordability)? Something that makes someone lose. Either taxpayers eat a real subsidy to make the cheap house pencil, or homeowners eat lower values from real density next door. Those are the choices.” Everyone wants affordable housing … over there.
• Ten Takeaways from the 2026 State of the Nation’s Housing
• One City Might Have Just Cracked the Housing Crisis – NYTimes.
• You Love Your Native Garden. But Will Buyers Love It Too?
• Highest Paid Occupations in Construction in 2025
• More Americans Are Aging Alone. One Woman Told Us What It’s Like. (See above: it takes a village) — if this or the next link doesn’t work, use archive dot ph.
• City parenting has become a financial flex. The wealthiest neighbourhoods are defying suburbanisation
• Fascism rewires the dinner table. It moves into marriages, wine shops, WhatsApp threads, the group text with your cousins. One of the ugliest lessons of the Trump era is how quickly politics leaves the screen and enters ordinary life. It walks into the restaurant, sits across from you, orders a glass, and starts talking about who should count as human

What I’m Listening to

• Americans are Leaving the US in Record Numbers: affordable housing is one reason.
• When a Housing Boom Turns to Bust : this is excellent.
• The AI Skills Nobody is Teaching (and Everybody Needs) w/ AI Expert Ethan Mollick
• Jon Batiste – Beethoven Blues

 

Possible topics for July:

(I always welcome suggestions) Right now I think I’ll be writing about some or all of these topics: E-bikes and hopefully a new infrastructure picture. My younger one got an e-bike; it’s awesome. How would you describe the Charlottesville – Albemarle market to someone coming in cold? A mid-2026 real estate market update. New construction, scaling, and loss of accountability. How real estate licensing teaches nothing about actual real estate practice. Lennar is building up 29 North; did you know that? Another agent recently said “I’d pay to work with you.”

If you made it this far, thank you. I’d love to hear why. 🙂 Also, I’m going to do a Charlottesville Reddit real estate AMA on 17 July. Looking forward to your questions!

 

~ Jim

434-242-7140

 

 

Eventually Substack will delete links to the photos above, so here they are.