It’s Not about the NAR’s Numbers, It’s about the NAR’s Credibility

I’ve tried for an hour to write this story about the National Association of Realtors’ revisions of housing data and I can’t seem to write anything new that I or others haven’t said before.

Or more succinctly:

@mortgagereports How will they help? More accurate data is good, but who trusts the NAR? My take is: national is irrelevant,local is crucial

There’s a bit more after the break, but the above sums it up.

And … question everything. Always. I do.Looking back to February of this year:

This is a big and important conversation because the NAR’s data, along with Case Schiller, are important, widely read, and depended on by many to ascertain the psychology of buyers, sellers – real estate consumers. Their data tries to demonstrate where we are now in the real estate market and where we’re going.

To which I say – So. What. I trust my local MLS nearly 85.7324%* myself, so why would I trust others more? I’ve said it before, when you’re evaluating the Charlottesville real estate market, ignore the national data; it will only cloud your opinion. Perhaps use it as a guide, but don’t count on it for anything other than high-level, disinterested trend lines.

And:

I started blogging to fill a void – a void of credible real estate information and analysis about the Charlottesville real estate market. Also, I needed a forum to voice my opinions (I have a lot of them). There are more bloggers today, but few respect real estate blogging as a craft to be perfected; too many see it as “the next best thing” (hint: blogging’s jumped the shark – look to Twitter for the “next” thing).

The void still exists. I’m doing my best to fill it.

Realtors spend too much time discrediting Lawrence Yun (from 2007)

A few relevant stories about the NAR’s revisions in 2011:

Calculated Risk – Lawler on NAR Revisions for 2007 through 2011

The Wall Street Journal – Housing Bust to Look Worse With Sales Revised

Matthew Ferrara (archived: 2017) – NAR Loses Nearly 1in 5 Home Sales; Confidence Next?

Zero Hedge – Existing Home Sales Debacle, As Larry ‘Baghdad-Bob’ Yun Confirms Overstatement

CNBC (no longer available) – Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years