Posts Published by Jim Duncan

Father, husband, Charlottesville real estate agent, bicycle rider & soccer coach. And more. Lots more.

Discussing the Charlottesville Real Estate Market on WNRN – 27 June 2010

I’ll be discussing the state of the Charlottesville real estate market this weekend on WNRN . The following are some of the stories I was (re)reading earlier this week to prep for the show.

… Vacant Homes for Sale in Charlottesville and Albemarle – June 2010

… http://www.housingwatch.com/2010/06/18/lenders-chase-borrowers-for-money-lost-in-foreclosures/

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Apparently the Tax Credit Closing Extension is Dead. For Now

Despite shaving another $22 billion off the price tag of H.R. 4213 , the unemployment insurance, jobs and tax extenders bill, the Democrats this afternoon failed for the third time in three weeks to defeat a Republican filibuster.

…Spooked by concern about deficits, the Senate shelved a spending bill that included an extension of unemployment benefits, suddenly cutting off a federal cash spigot opened by President Barack Obama when he took office 18 months ago.

… “In effect, I think what we’ve done is pull ahead a lot of sales,” de Ritis said.

…Still, the number is so bad that it makes a decent case for an extension and retuning of the tax credit, de Ritis said. (hat tip: CR ) *editor’s note: I’m going to move this post to the sideblog shortly.

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Charlottesville is One of Five Best Places to Retire

We still don’t have sufficient senior-friendly housing to meet the current or anticipated demand. … Great place to find a job . (you’ll note that Charlottesville’s unemployment is lower than the national average ) (I’ve been asking for housing suitable for seniors – and all ages – for at least five years ) —

I would cite the article, but I’m unclear as to whether I can without submitting to their terms of service. I almost didn’t even point out the article because of this. 5 Great Cities for Retirees - Kiplinger Would I violate Fair Use if I choose to copy the text without their script/ad?

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When Evaluating the Charlottesville Real Estate Market, IGNORE National Data

Take your lede : – Home sales up 14% in Charlottesville and Albemarle year over year. – Home sales up 19% in Charlottesville MSA year over year. – Foreclosures continue to climb in Charlottesville and Albemarle. – Questions abound regarding second half of 2010; where will we find the bottom of the market? – If you have questions about or would like more detailed analysis, please contact me.

…Simple (though notsoumuch in reality) What I’m reading: – Harvard’s State of the Nation’s Housing Market (PDF) and listening to an excellent podcast with Nicholas Retsinas , Director, Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies . (did you know that there was an exhibit at the Smithsonian on McMansions ?) – Core Logic’s Home Price Index Report for April 2010 – Virginia’s Housing Price Index, for single family homes year-over-year, is up 6.5%; for single family homes excluding distressed properties, is up 3.6%. Virginia is one of the five best states for year-over-year price appreciation excluding distressed sales .. but mostly that’s irrelevant in my opinion as the bulk of those sales are most likely comprised of Northern Virginia sales. – The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index for First Quarter 2010 The FHFA (formerly OFHEO) say that in the Charlottesville MSA house prices have dropped 6.98% year over year, 1.86& in the 1st Quarter 2010, and have appreciated 12.68% over the past 5 years .

… Home Sales are Up 19% year over year in the Charlottesville MSA: Sales are up in Charlottesville MSA Year over year.jpg Homes sales are UP 14% in Charlottesville and Albemarle : Home Sales UP in Charlottesville and Albemarle - 2010 versus 2009.jpg One point: Charlottesville’s Unemployment is lower than the national average. Charlottesville's Unemployment is lower than the national average. Prime example of the irrelevance of national, aggregate housing data, which is good only for political talking points and respective agendas: Foreclosure starts for the nation and Charlottesville and Albemarle: National foreclosure data, courtesy of the HUD Scorecard, using RealtyTrac data: National Foreclosure data - Mildly irrelevant For Charlottesville, using RealtyTrac : Charlottesville Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information - may 2010 For Albemarle County, using RealtyTrac: Albemarle County Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information - Trends Albemarle County Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information - May 2010 What have median home prices done in Charlottesville over the past five years?

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Dealing with Home Buyers’ New Psychology

When we started, we were looking at new construction, and I had to tell them that whatever they wanted changed would have to be done by them, at their expense after closing, as the builders were not going to make any concessions or alterations. … That’s a difference that matters – both to actual sales numbers and perceived sales numbers – to the market’s collective psyche, if you will. See for yourself (PDF). Add to this the fact that the average Days on Market in May 2006 was 69 and the average Days on Market in May 2010 is 106 and the market rightfully feels slower.

…Many Sellers don’t want to “give their homes away” (hint: price your home to sell from Day One ) and many Buyers want to feel like they get a “deal” and many buyers have unreasonable expectations – resale homes are used homes; they are not new construction.

…They also are prepared to walk away if things don’t go their way – there will be another house that suits their needs and wants; five or six years ago, another house would come on the market, but it would probably have been more expensive.

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So … Has the Tax Credit Closing Deadline Been Extended? Maybe.

I’m reading this morning that the amendment was approved: The Senate has amended a bill to give homebuyers who were under contract on a home purchase by April 30 an additional three months to close the deal and claim the federal homebuyer tax credit. … I read this on the OpenCongress site – Dems Lose Big on Unemployment Insurance/Tax Extenders Vote After two weeks of solid debate — and two weeks of people having their unemployment insurance cut off because of congressional inaction — the Senate this morning took their first test vote on passing H.R. 4213 , the “American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act of 2010.” … As you know, Senator Reid has been supporting an amendment to H.R. 4213 that would extend the deadline for closing for the homebuyer tax credit from June 30 to September 30. … But also yesterday, earlier in the day before Senator Reid’s amendment, the Senate voted against a motion that would move closer to ending debate on the bill and passing it.

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