Tag Archives: statistics
This is why Hindsight is Important (in Real Estate)
It’s easy to use hindsight as a blunt force, but it’s important to note that we’re not going to know whether today’s real estate data reflects a/the sign of market recovery or a positive blip on the chart until we have the benefit of hindsight.
My advice: Be patient, ask questions, be confident, seek competent representation.
From the Speaking of Real Estate blog:
Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies released its annual State of the Nation’s Housing report for 2012 and it very closely tracks comments made by NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun earlier this week at a CRE conference on what’s holding back the housing recovery.
The Harvard report, which always does a good job laying out in plain language what’s happening with the market, points to the increasingly strong market fundamentals and says home sales really could see serious improvement this year.
Sounds pretty ok, right?
And then I see @NickTimiraos from the WSJ tweet:
Harvard JCHS 2006: Fortunately, most homeowners have sizable equity stakes even if they can’t pay their mortgage http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/state-nations-housing-2006
The Harvard report from 2006 says (in part): Continue reading
Interesting New Market Report – Some Positivity in the (Macro & Micro) Market
One of the best parts of this Housing Prospects 50 States Release March 12 2012
One of the things I said in the Newsplex story is that any market analysis that is broader than a street or neighborhood is too broad to make an informed and educated decision.
Excerpting from the report won’t do it justice; if you’re interested, download the pdf and read it.
The one quibble I would make is that depending on Zillow for local analysis with respect to the Charlottesville MSA is perhaps not the best idea; but from a macro perspective, they’re worthwhile.
Perhaps the best part of the report is this – William Lucy states the need for local analysis and local perspectives. The housing system may be broken, but the solution is not a one-size-fits-all Continue reading
Case Shiller Doesn’t Track Charlottesville’s MSA – or – Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter Report
I’ve said it before. Case Shiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville real estate market summed up in one phrase: it doesn’t exist.
As I said this morning on Google+ -
So we’re getting ready to widely release Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter 2012 Nest Report … there’s some interesting data and analysis in there.
Combined with the reports I’m hearing from agents about the massive traffic at open houses, I’m thinking that *pockets* of the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate markets are likely to see some stability & even price increases this year.
As far as Case-Shiller and the NAR? They don’t track our market. They’re good insofar as they give insight into other markets and their respective psychological impacts are interesting but not particularly relevant to our local market.
Here’s Nest’s 4th Quarter report – (Download your copy of the PDF here)
What we’re seeing is this:
- Buyer activity is up. Way up, over the past few months and years
- Multiple offers on desirable properties are becoming almost common place
- Foreclosures and short sales are going to be with us for a long time
- Buyers want to buy. They just don’t want to buy crap or overpriced homes.
- (some) Sellers are becoming more realistic.
It’s Not about the NAR’s Numbers, It’s about the NAR’s Credibility
I’ve tried to write this story about the National Association of Realtors’ revisions and I can’t seem to write anything new that I or others haven’t said before.
@mortgagereports How will they help? More accurate data is good, but who trusts the NAR? My take is: national is irrelevant,local is crucial
There’s a bit more after the break, but the above sums it up.
So What if the NAR Overestimated Home Sales?
What’s old is new again.
To which I say: so what? I have yet to see relevance in their data, and I have never heard one of my clients reference their forecasts or recaps.
If you’re surprised (really?!) the NAR overestimated sales, you haven’t been paying attention for the past decade.#realtors
Calculated Risk said in 2007 about the National Association of Realtors:
I think their forecasting model is broken.
My thoughts then are still relevant.
And CR said noted last week the NAR’s press release which stated:
NAR presently is benchmarking* existing-home sales, and downward revisions are expected for totals in recent years, although there will be little change to previously reported comparisons based on percentage change. There will be will be no change to median prices or month’s supply of inventory. Publication of the improved measurement methodology is expected in the near future.
Earlier this year, I noted that folks paying attention to the national and local real estate markets really need to just ignore the NAR’s numbers.
The National Association of Realtors is a trade organization. Not an unbiased news (heh. do those exist?) organization. Remember that.
Barry Merchant’s Housing Update – October 26, 2011
Given yesterday to the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors:
Barry Merchant has annually provided some of the best, most realistic market insight to the state, regional and Charlottesville area real estate markets.
Barry Merchant’s presentation to CAAR – 10-26-2011
More after the jump … Continue reading
Nest’s 3rd Quarter Market Report
Nest Realty’s 3rd Quarter Market Report (PDF)
Download, read it, print it, mark it with your questions and let me know what you think. There are some bright spots (Charlottesville Single Family home sales up nearly 30%) and some bizarre data points that highlight how every market is local (Nelson’s sales are off 48%).
More to come.
Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors’ 3rd Quarter Market Report (2011)
More to come. In the meantime, have a look at the market report.
CAAR 3rd Quarter Real Estate Market Report – 2011
This post will be updated throughout the day as I get opportunities to look at the data. …
Notes:
- The above report is for the entire Charlottesville MLS area, not Charlottesvill and Albemarle or even the Charlottesville MSA (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson) or even the Charlottesville MSA + Louisa. So take it for what it’s worth – a very broad overview of the entire Central Virginia region. Example: in Amherst, Augusta, Buckingham, Goochland, Rockbridge and Lexington, there are 156 closed transactions in our MLS … which isn’t particularly relevant to real estate consumers in the Charlottesville area.
- Days on Market is not statistically accurate, as it does not reflect relistings of properties.
- The Charlottesville market is still declining.
- Detailed market report from Nest coming soon, as is county by county break down.
- Townhouse/Attached median sold price is down in the Charlottesville/Albemarle area, in no small part due to Ryan Homes’ driving prices through the floor market-wide.
- Median sales prices are down, but inventory is down as well; the latter qualifying as a good data point.
- What questions do you have about the market data?
Interactive Charts are after the jump; I choose to use the static charts rather than the interactive reports as I don’t like to be locked into a service; I pay $30 a month for access to the deeper data and if I choose to not pay for the service, the interactive charts go away … not a good option. Continue reading
