(nearly) Third Quarter Market Report for Charlottesville Region

There are currently 2,567 homes on the market in Central Virginia* about the same number as this time last year. (3,609 in the entire MLS)

Make no mistake – properties are absolutely selling right now. However, those who are willing and able to sell are frequently those who have owned their homes for more than four or five years.

There is quite a bit of bad news in the market, but not all is bad – let’s not forget that the University of Virginia contributes hundreds of millions of dollars to the local economy and are in the midst of a $3 Billion dollar campaign. The planned influx of government jobs at the NGIC/DIA facility (story addressing this coming 23 September) will also have a positive impact on the Charlottesville market and economy. With that salve ….

Sales volume is down, year over year, about 27%. Compared to the volume in 2006, sales are down about 40%.

There are currently 381 homes under contract in Central Virginia:

41 have been on the market for at least 365 days, 102 have been on the market for at least 180 days and 163 have been on the market for at least 90 days

but –

175 have days on market of at least 60 days

129 have days on market of under 30 days

About 46% of homes currently under contract have days on market of under 60 days. Nearly 50% of Sellers have taken note that in order to sell their homes, they have to price their homes aggressively according to the market.

Inventory Levels in Charlottesville/Central Virginia region

Median Prices for Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson:


Breakdown by locality –

Days on market are up, year over year, average sales prices are up and median prices are about the same as 2007.


2008

Median-Prices-for-Charlottesville-Virginia-Region-2008

2007

Median-Prices-for-Charlottesville-Virginia-Region-2007

2006

Median-Prices-for-Charlottesville-Virginia-Region-2006

2005

Median-Prices-for-Charlottesville-Virginia-Region-2005

2004

Median-Prices-for-Charlottesville-Virginia-Region-200


Agent Update:

Through 3rd Quarter 2008: 80 had more than ten sides, 223 had more than five sides, 654 had at least one, leaving about 450 with zero transactions

Through 3rd Quarter 2007: 121 had more than ten sides, 297 had more than five sides, 740 had at least one, leaving several hundred (which is historically normal) with zero transactions

Through 3rd Quarter 2006: 166 had more than ten sides, 338 had more than five sides, 792 had at least one, leaving several hundred (which is historically normal) with zero transactions

Through 3rd Quarter 2005: 182 had more than ten sides, 368 had more than five sides, 723 had at least one, leaving several hundred Realtors (which is historically normal) with zero transactions

Through 3rd Quarter 2004: 180 had more than ten sides, 334 had more than five sides, 654 had at least one, leaving several hundred (again, which is historically normal) with zero transactions


For context, see the Second Quarter 2008 market report and all market statistics posts here.

If you want a copy of the more comprehensive market report, including a further breakdown of condo properties in Charlottesville and Albemarle as well as new construction percentages, please email me. I’ll likely post it here next week.


1- Central Virginia – City of Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa (for this one sentence) and Nelson Counties

2 – Why not Louisa? As I noted in June

I don’t think (my opinion) that Louisa was as significant a part of our market four years ago as it is today. As I don’t break down the data by locality, I didn’t want to unnecessarily skew the data.

3 – “Now” for the purposes of this report, is Thursday, 4 September 2008.

4 – Source of all data is from the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors’ MLS; while it is the best source of market data available and one can draw reasonable conclusions from said data, it is only as accurate as the people inputting the data.

5 – a “side” is a side of a transaction – the Realtor had either the Buyer or the Seller in a transaction.

6 – Absorption Rate Number of weeks it takes to sell the current inventory at the present rate of sales.

7 – No keyword spamming was used in writing this report/post. I respect my readers, Google and the “purity” of real estate blogging too much to stoop to such levels.

8 – Posts with enduring interest – Just for Buyers and Posts with Enduring Interest – Just for Sellers

9 – I am working on the Greater Augusta/Waynesboro market report. Please email me if you have specific questions.

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9 Comments

  1. michael guthrie September 8, 2008 at 16:15

    OK. I know there must be simple answer to this and or I have missed something, but “Why are you doing the 3rd quarter market report before September is over’?

    Reply
  2. Fred September 8, 2008 at 17:34

    The NGIC/Rivanna jobs will get here about 2011.

    UVa and all state agencies have hiring freezes and face cuts.

    True about the billions pumped into the economy…but it’s not dollars that are going to buy the huge inventory of houses. That’s what needed…getting rid of the big inventory.

    Reply
  3. Larry Jewel September 8, 2008 at 20:21

    Question about these numbers:

    There are 2,567 homes for sale in the Central VA area.

    Are the 381 homes under contract in Central Virginia area reflective of the same area that this number covers, or the wider area that the 3,609 homes for sale in the MLS # represents?

    We seem to have more than 14 months of supply here. This is more than the national average of 11 months. Anybody have any explanations for this?

    Reply
  4. Jim Duncan September 8, 2008 at 20:49

    Larry –

    I always pull numbers only for Central Virginia, not for the entire MLS.

    Reply
  5. Bubble Blog September 9, 2008 at 11:21

    For a national perspective on housing figures including price to income ratio, rent to purchase price ratio, inventory, etc., we suggest this post from CalculatedRISK:

    http://tinyurl.com/6m8xzb

    And we’ve updated our post (so helpful of us, right?) about “How Do You Price A House to Sell?”

    Available at this link:

    http://tinyurl.com/6jrbu4

    It also stays in our sidebar.

    Great presentation of numbers as usual, Jim.

    Reply
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