Charlottesville Real Estate Market – Quick Look in Mid-June 2020

Can/should you buy a house in Charlottesville?

Can/should you sell your house in Charlottesville?

Those are the questions.

But what are the answers?

This is from my subscription-only monthly note, one email a month, which I eventually will publish here, but I’m opting to put this bit out now as it’s timely.

The Market

It’s a great time to buy or sell!No. Just stop.
Things are selling. Inventory (new listings) is down and so are contracts.

Quick look at where we are in Charlottesville + Albemarle

Immediately after the lockdown on 13 March, contracts were off between 40% and 50%, year over year, and listings were off about 40% ish. The specific numbers don’t really matter; listings were way off, and contracts were too. But they were off in a mostly balanced fashion. And buyers kept buying, sellers kept selling, and there still is not sufficient inventory to satisfy demand, so prices haven’t fallen.Now (16 June), year to date, contracts are off 15% and listings are off 22%. To put numbers to that:

From 1 January to 31 May, excluding new construction

  • Charlottesville – 209 homes went under contract in 2020, and 268 in 2019. New listings, that’s 223 this year, and 279 in 2019.
  • Albemarle – 620 in 2020 and 768 in 2019. For new listings, that’s 754 this year and 854 last year.

Does any of this matter to you? Maybe. But you’re likely not looking at the real estate market; you’re looking at your real estate market.

I’ll pick a segment

Single family home (zoning is a conversation we will have later) in Albemarle County, under half an acre, between $400K and $600K.

Last year, from 1 January to 14 June, 754 homes were listed and are either still active (17), pending (14), or were sold (723). This year, that number is 682 – active (248), pending (225), sold (209).

Of those 682, 309 have a half acre or less. Asking price between $400K and $600K, and we have 148 – 38 active, 68 pending, and 42 sold. (Last year, that number was 168, so not that many fewer this year.)

My clients tend to focus on elementary school districts, as it’s the best way to narrow a range geographically, but we’ll stay broad for this note.

Western – 59
Albemarle – 40
Monticello – 49

In short, that’s a lot of numbers to conclude that this year is similar to last year. This year, of the 110 pending or sold, the average days on market is 19 and the median is 5 (this includes new construction). Last year, of the 165 that sold in that timeframe, the average DOM was 27 and the median was 5.

Shorter conclusion: do your homework, with great representation, as good stuff tends to move fast, as there’s not enough of it on the market.

What’s next? I don’t know. And anyone who tells you with confidence is able to predict the future. I’m writing a blog post that I’m going to schedule for 1 March 2021; I’m making my predictions and will see then how right or wrong I was.

Nest's May 2020 Market Reports

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