Peril & a Rainbow – Jim’s Note September 2026

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September. We are entering perhaps the best time of year to live in Charlottesville and Albemarle.

I’m finding it important to remember to be mindful of the things I and my clients can control, and I do my level best to radically accept those things that I cannot.

(apologies for the email with the video intro; that shouldn’t have gone out as it did)

Real Estate in Perilous Times

Clients asked me that question recently.

My answer was, “Yes, yes it is.”

Most of my clients have asked me a version of this question at one time or another. “Is what we’re doing smart? Is it the right thing to do?”

Yes, right now is a perilous time.

• Interest rates are high: Up from ~6% early this year to just over 7.25% now for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.
• We are entering the seventh(!) month of a war of choice that is decimating the world’s economies, with no end in sight.
• Fuel prices are through the roof and inflation is legitimately costly.
• Uncertainty at every turn.

And yet.

We move forward with the certainty that we can control.

If you need to sell your house, we are going to do everything we can to sell your house. We’re going to price it correctly, prepare it as well as we can, take the photos, the floorplans, the videos, the marketing copy – we’re going to do all the stuff.

If you need to buy a house and have the life — financial, job, relationship, family, pet — security and confidence, it might be a good time to consider buying a home. If you’re confident you can/will be there for at least 10 to 15 years, the volatility can be mitigated by having the right home for you and your family.

If your horizon is less than five years, I’d be inclined to strongly advise renting instead of buying.

Three PDFs to Help You
Reply and tell me what you’d add to help others.

• A draft buyers guide
• A draft guide for people considering selling their home (targeted at first time sellers and applicable to all)
• Questions to ask your potential listing agent when you’re interviewing them.

I’ve said this to countless clients over the years: There is never a perfect time to do anything. My role is to help you make the best decisions possible with the best, most accurate, and most relevant information and data.

Then you decide. (I’ll help.)

AI and Trust.

“What do you think?” is something almost every one of my clients asks me, from what color they should paint the kitchen to where they should price their house.

If a buyer walks in and sees a nail pop or a seam of a drywall corner, will Google Lens tell them to run or will a new or inexperienced buyer agent say “I don’t know, check with AI.”? Where is the agents’ value if they don’t have the knowledge or experience?

More words ≠ the right answer.

The right words, and the right thinking, experience, and context will lead to the right answer.

Trust but Verify

Everything has made me assume there is at least another 30K in equity available, so this analysis is very helpful.

Finishing the basement might not get what I need, but presumably that might be the best near-term investment.

I think you can take us off the automated listing alerts.

Online valuations can be useful, for directional guidance, for getting an idea as to what the value might be, but they’re not quite accurate enough for decision making. Yet.

As I told my client: Finishing the basement may not be the right market answer but it is probably the right life answer.

Another client said to me recently, “I trust you, and I’ll follow your advice.” Every single time I hear this, I’m humbled with the weight of my clients’ decisions, and I never lose sight that they make life decisions based on what we discuss.

Simple, right? 🙂

Figuring Out Where to Live in Charlottesville

The following is a couple of client stories smushed together to tell one story.

February 2025 is the first email I got from these clients. They decided they wanted to semi-retire to Charlottesville to be close to the grandkids, but they didn’t know where they wanted to live. They had visited a few times, but never lived here. For decades, I have advised renting first. They took my advice and rented in several different Airbnbs for weeks or months at a time – all over the City of Charlottesville.

• One part of Charlottesville is different than the other; different coffee shops, grocery stores, gyms, schools, commutes.
• Is Crozet too far? Or just far enough? Is there enough to do there?
• 29 North is where I work. Do I want to live there too?

The best way to answer those questions is to live there for at least six months.

I’m finding that more of my business this year is coming from those seeking to retire or semi-retire in the Charlottesville area. For those buyers, renting in different locations is more practical than for those moving with kids or pets.

Related: We Moved. Retirement Didn’t Pause for the Boxes. I met Jay 20 years ago from the real estate blogging world; he’s retired, but he hasn’t stopped writing and sharing.

Personal Property

Negotiating hundreds of thousands of dollars for a house is one thing; negotiating for a $250 TV can be shockingly more divisive, complicated, and emotional.

I have bought televisions, rugs, a fridge once, and have cleaned and paid to clean countless houses. Every agent has at one point or another. I’m chalking this year’s stressors up to the stress that all of us are collectively feeling.

Sometimes the seller reaches a point of “I am so done with this process, I’m going to leave this stuff; they’ll probably want it.” And sometimes the buyer wants that thing but doesn’t recognize this want until we’re two weeks from closing. We always solve it, but the stressor is something I am working to head off.

Sellers: Before we go live, walk through with a notepad and write down every single thing you do not intend to take with you — and tell your agent. 🙂

Buyers: If you want something, ask for it at the time of the offer. If we ask for that thing after we’re under contract, things can get messy. “I won’t fix that leak because I gave them the couch!” (I’d bet you’d rather have the leak fixed.)

As my clients have heard me say countless times: emotions make things worse.

Climate and Real Estate

I read this story and was both surprised and not. “The open houses at the edge of disaster. What are buyers being told about climate risk in Miami? I posed as one to find out.”

Whether or not you believe in a warming earth is irrelevant; if your house is on the coast, it might fall into the water, believe it or not.

I wrote in 2016 “Would you Buy a House in a Flood Plain?” and this story is more relevant today than ever.

Climate migration is real; I suspect the Central Virginia region is going to continue to see more influx as the effects of climate change worsen.

Time will tell.

• Climate is coming for your home value. Always blows folks minds when I explain what happens when insurance disappears. No insurance = no mortgage = no one can buy your house = not great for home values.

Relaunching RealCentralVA
(blog is here)

For me, this is a big deal. Almost every day, I send clients links to stories I have written last week, last month, last decade; my blog is an active archive of local real estate history.

I started writing RealCentralVA in January 2005. Before social media, before the fragmentation of the interwebs, and before a lot of stuff. My focus has always been on writing words. Some call it “content.” I call it “my thoughts on the Charlottesville – Albemarle region and real estate market, and my attempt to analyze the market, and share my thoughts and opinions on said market.”

So much has changed, and I firmly believe that words matter. Archives and history matter. Learning about the market, and who you’re working with matter. So does a track record of where I’ve been right, and where I’ve been wrong — that’s all here.

I started this site in part because of the BS I was seeing from Realtor organizations: “It’s a great time to buy or sell!” and other such nonsense.

The biggest holdup in this process has been me: Between representing my clients, building for the future, writing, and stuff outside of real estate, doing the “bringing my site into 2026” has been a lot of work.

Huge, huge thanks to John Athayde at Meticulous for their work on my site.

What I’m Reading

• Real Estate
  • Real Estate Photographer’s Drone Blasted Out of the Sky
  • It’s almost impossible to sell a condo unit these days: ‘I feel trapped’
• Climate
  • Climate.US — the replacement for Climate.gov
  • This “Supersized” El Niño Is Only Just Beginning to Wreak Its Havoc
• Economy
  • US borrowing costs hit 5% for first time since 2023 amid bond sell-off
  • How the Iran war reverberated through the global economy
  • The Hidden Price of the Iran War
• Uncategorized
  • Let’s make quality the norm again

What I’m Listening To

• The Great Demographic Reset: What Housing Demand Looks Like Now
• The dark matter of dirt: Why the physics of mud are so mysterious

Even in times of peril, let’s find a way to live.