Borrow a Dog & Walk the Comps; Do the Work Now.

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#192 October. Fall days are good.

If you read only one section this month, make it “Start the Work Now.” The homes that hit the market in spring are being prepped right now.

If you know someone thinking about selling this spring? Please forward this to them.

Vote. Try to collect all the stickers. 🙂
Find your polling place here.

Buying or Selling in 2027? Start the Work Now.

The spring real estate market in Charlottesville tends to start in February. (See charts below.)

The preparation for the spring real estate market, whether you’re planning to buy or sell, starts right now, if not before. That’s it. That’s the message.

Sellers:

A sample timeline:
- This week: Walk your house and take notes; what is everything that needs fixing that you would notice if you were buying your house right now?
- Before Thanksgiving: Get quotes. Ask me if you need recommendations.
- December through January: Declutter, stage (let’s talk first), make repairs.
- January: Reevaluate the market (we always are).
- Ask me to send you the five closest comps so you can walk by them.

Buyers:

I’d start with my buyer survey, and the resources and stories here. Tell me what you’re looking for; I’ll send you a few houses to watch as we make our way through the end of 2026.
Walk the neighborhoods you like. Learn the traffic patterns. Learn the smells, bus stops. If you don’t have a dog, borrow a dog and walk around. Talk to neighbors.

Every year (except for 2020), the Charlottesville and Albemarle market follows the same basic trend. Listings bottom out in December and surge in March and April, and nearly half of each year’s new listings arrive between March and June. Contracts follow the same curve, about a month behind.

2026 ran on nearly the same calendar as 2025. New listings peaked in March and April both years, at about 300 a month, against fewer than 100 in December and January. Contracts peaked in March through May. In November and December 2025, contracts outnumbered new listings. Winter brings fewer buyers, but even fewer homes.

What I’ve Written and Said about the market

Doing a Comp Walk

Comps are one thing on paper (or email, or Zillow). They’re another when you walk past them. If you’re thinking about selling, do this exercise. Look at the active and pending competition, and walk by them. Or ride. Or drive. Just go look at them. Take your love of your home out of the equation; how does yours compare to theirs?

Heck, let’s do this exercise together, ideally walking or riding bicycles or e-bikes. It will be fun, and I’ll bet we all learn something useful and actionable.

Zestimates are a number. Photos are pretty. Walking or riding by the house(s) you are competing with will be infinitely more instructive than reading details on a screen or on paper.

Bonus, it’s fall, and it’s usually really nice outside.

From a client:

I’m thinking we’ve got another 4-8 years (before we sell) so don’t retire too soon.

It’s Always a Bit of a Leap of Faith.

We never really know until we have hindsight. My clients and colleagues know that I often say, “I’ll tell you in 18 months what happens tomorrow.”

The best takeaway for you: study the market and lead with the data while acknowledging the emotions.

And yet, no matter what the data says, what price to pay, what to offer or not, how to draft the right inspection clauses, the decisions my clients make are always predicated on a bit of a leap of faith.

Uncertainty is always present. The buyer knows their ceiling, the seller doesn’t. Nobody knows what rates will do; that’s a frustrating part of the process.

Fear is what we attach to the uncertainty.

Some uncertainties:
- “Are we making the right decision?”
- “What if it sells faster than we expect?”
- “Will our home sell?”
And fears
- “Will we be happy here?”
- “Will we make friends? Will our kids? Will our dogs?”
- “What if we never want to leave?”
- “What if we miss the market?”

“What happens if …?”

We’ll study the market together, and we’ll go over the most relevant and most accurate data we can find. Part of my “what I do” is sitting in the not-knowing with you.

And then you decide. That part is never easy.

If it turns out wrong, we’ll figure it out, whether that’s finding the right next house, selling for a bit less or more than you expected, or finding a property manager.

I wrote this in 2008:

Inventory is up and sales are down. Surprise.

There is significant, almost palpable fear in the market right now – from Realtors to home inspectors to builders and subcontractors to buyers and sellers (and not all will survive). Pushing beyond those fears is going to be part of the solution. Fear is not a fundamental.

With hindsight, I’d edit that. Fear isn’t a fundamental. Uncertainty is.

As I tell my clients, and as my client above is counting on, I’ll be here.

Have a question? Please ask me. Really. 434-242-7140

First sign of fall colors. #FromTheBicycle

Buying a house instead of paying for childcare?

A few years ago, I represented people selling their house. I don’t know if the buyers were the grandparents, the parents, or the grandparents + the parents (it didn’t matter to my clients; they sold the house!).

The buyers’ agent told me that the buyers bought the house because the grandparents were moving to be close to family, and it was more cost effective to buy a house than it was to pay for childcare for two kids. Childcare is expensive.

Grandparents are moving to be close to the kids and grandkids; we are going to continue to see a lot more of this.

This is part of the affordability conversation so many of my clients have, every single day. Being a real estate agent means seeing a lot of people’s differences and a lot of their shared challenges. It’s always about more than just houses, and we have more in common than we might imagine.

If you have this in your house, marketing “recently updated” is a stretch. 🙂

An aside about authenticity

It is exhausting reading about “new” tactics and strategies to demonstrate and market “authenticity” in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.

Be yourself. If you’re a human, write. Be nice.

I’d like to think my clients appreciate that I’m transparent, that I say “I don’t know, but I’ll ask or find someone who does,” and for better or worse, I’ll probably be wearing a t-shirt and Birkenstocks when the weather calls for it.

Just be.

Writing and thinking are hard sometimes. And the work is the point.

For better or worse, my writing here is mine. My mistakes are mine; I hate and own them. My opinions are mine, too. 🙂

What I’m Reading

What I’m Listening to

America Doesn’t Have a Housing “Shortage” (It’s Something Much Worse)
Why are we letting houses fall into the ocean? (I knew the answer before I listened)
‘Leg day for the soul’: Rainn Wilson’s radical approach to mental resilience
Jimmy Carr: My Mom’s Depression Made Me Funny – a long Trevor Noah conversation, and an exceptional one.
Stephen Fry is brilliant

Thank you for making it this far. And please, if you can, give to others. Our favorite charities are Charlottesville – Albemarle Meals on Wheels and the Blue Ridge Area Food Bank.

Jim

Next month: new loan types, MLS changes – hiding days on market, property history, price changes and more, AI and photos, builders earning business in a different market, and things you learn when talking to neighbors.