Talking Real Estate Matters - Interest Rates and Midterm Elections

I was on Michael Guthrie’s radio show, Real Estate Matters, last week. As I’ve started doing, I had Granola (AI note app) running, so I could focus on the conversation instead of going back and listening to take notes. I find great value in conversations with other professionals, especially those who have doing this through many different market cycles as I have.

This conversation covered a lot of the same ground as my 1 October 2026 post, and we discussed some things in detail that I hadn’t touched on. Either way, I think it was a good conversation, and one I’ll likely be referring to for a few weeks, so, here it is.

Annotated notes are below.

Notes from a podcast I recorded this week. For the full numbers, start with my October 1 market update.

Where the market is right now (~first week of October 2026)

Price cuts: about 40% of resale homes that went under contract in August and September took a price cut first. 35% last year, 28% in 2024. About 240 contracts per window, so 35% to 40% is within the noise. (Oct 1 update)
Days to contract: median 29 days for August and September contracts. 24 last year, 10 to 12 in 2021 and 2022, 30 in 2019. Back to normal, not below it. (where the slowdown started)
Rates: 6.01% on February 19 (Freddie Mac) to 7.28% the week of October 1 (Freddie Mac). HousingWire showed 7.63% on October 5.
The Fed raised rates September 16, the first hike since 2023. (StockAnalysis) Treasury yields were already climbing. (10-year at 4.88% on Sept 10)
Timing: almost every August and September closing went under contract before mid-September. The softening started in spring. The rate is the second shove.
First-time buyers feel it most. More than a point since February.

Sellers

Price to today, not six months ago. (September’s note)
Study the failures. 665 resale listings expired, withdrew or were canceled from January 2025 to June 2026. 39% later sold at the same address. Four in five sold below the last list price, median 4.3% lower. (sold comps aren’t enough – from December 2025)
Two weekends: not under contract by then, the price is the problem. (spring 2026) – and how I’m adjusting this guideline to today’s market.
Before Friday: pull the five closest withdrawn or expired listings. Write down the last list price on each. (if you’re curious, ask me)

Buyers

Most of my buyer conversations are now about spring 2027. Good; preparation matters.
Staying three to five years or longer: buying may still reasonable. Under three: rent. New to town: rent first.
Patience isn’t passive. Do the lender conversation, pick three neighborhoods, learn what a good price looks like, and how to recognize and feel that.

Cash and local demand

Cash: about 29% of Albemarle closings over the last 12 months, down from 32%. Resale cash ran about 24% in the first half of 2026 and 34% in the third quarter. (July AMA recap)
Grandparents moving to be near family: sold a long-held house elsewhere, arrive with equity, some unconcerned with resale.
Multigenerational: 14% of buyers in NAR’s latest profile, down from a record 17%, up from 13% in 2015. (2025, 2015) One joint purchase I heard about cost less than daycare for two kids. I’m writing about this in detail for my October Monthly Note.
UVA alumni keep coming back.
New apartments: about 3,000 student beds in 2027. VERVE 1,332, Blume on Ivy 640 (231 apartments), Ivy Corridor 750, Darden 325. CoStar expects pressure on existing owners. I truly don’t know yet how these are going to affect the residential resale market in Charlottesville and Albemarle.

Election and outlook

Midterms are November 3, four weeks out. Buyers and sellers I talk to are waiting to see what happens.
Resale contracts: August 130 vs. 101 last year, September 113 vs. 154. Rates and the election both moved. I can’t separate them.
Watching pendings, since they lead closings, and price cuts against last fall (45% of October contracts, 41% of November).
I don’t know what happens after November 3. Hope isn’t a forecast. I’ll revisit all of this in late November.

Data: CAAR MLS via Paragon, pulled October 5, 2026. Albemarle and Charlottesville City, resale only unless noted. Price cuts: original price above list price at contract. Days to contract: list date to ratified contract date. Cash: all Albemarle closings, October 2025 to October 2026.