Date Archives June 2006

Charlottesville Housing “Overvalued”

Their methodology is here.  USA Today is good at presenting pretty shocking pictures.The good news – The Charlottesville MSA is the 82nd most overvalued MSA in the country….  (Please note the touch of sarcasm) We have seen a pretty dramatic increase – the area was statistically considered (by this data) to be 0.2% under-valued in the 1st Quarter of 2002 and now the area is 29% over-valued.  Wow.Do you see the difference between these two statements?  From the report: After determining what house prices should be, in this statistically normal sense, we compare those theoretical prices to actual prices to determine the extent of over-, or under-valuation.From USA Today’s byline: Metro areas’ first quarter housing prices with the greatest percentage above and below what they should be:Having someone say arbitrarily what a house price “should be” removes (to me) the free market’s influence.  When buyers choose not to meet a Sellers’ asking price – that is showing that the house is over-valued.  Locally, sellers seem to still not realized that the value of their home is not set by what they need to make; it is what a ready, willing and able buyer is willing to spend.  They are slowly coming around – there have been nearly 80 price reductions in the MLS in the past three days.

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Condos in CharlAlbemarle

Condos, condos, condos.  Condos have been a major part of the market in CharlAlbemarle for the past several years.  As readers know, I use other markets as bell-weathers for the Central Virginia market – what does the cancellation of two DC condo projects relate to ours?Active Condos in CharlAlbemarle 2001-2006 (blue is 2006, pink is 2005)This article from the WSJ is worthwhile:”I knew we were in trouble when the guy who delivered my television a few weeks ago said he had bought two conversions [in the area] and was trying to flip them,” says Kolter chief operating officer Peter Donnantuoni, pinning most of the blame on speculators for driving up prices to unreasonable levels.Sold Condos in CharlAlbemarle 2001-2006Data Source: CAAR MLSCompare this analysis to one just a few months ago in the DP with this telling quote:In addition to the first-time buyer trying to get his foot in the door, a sizeable portion of investors or “amateur landlords,” retirees and recent transplants help fuel the condominium market …There are an awful lot of condos on the market right now – two properties that I am marketing in the Turtle Creek development have been on the market for over two months.  They are well-priced in relation to their competition and last year at this time would have sold in less than two weeks.  There are now eleven properties on the market in Turtle Creek – a huge number.  We are in uncharted waters.Condo conversions have been a “good thing,” particularly with regards to affordable housing.  It seems that a lot of buyers are taking their collective breaths right now.

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2006 Readers’ Choice Awards

This year the Daily Progress is asking for their readers to vote for their “Best of”.  Last year I was pleased to be selected the “Favorite Realtor.”  Should you have the time and inclination, I would appreciate your taking the time to vote.  As I said last year, Self-promotion is one of the most difficult aspects of my profession; I don’t do it well and I don’t like it very much – but it is one of the most important parts of my job.  I gained one lead, and ultimately earned their business, directly from this promotion….  Note: If you have ad-blocking on your browser, you normally wouldn’t see this promotion….  When I went to their site and turned off my ad-blocking, I realized how intrusive their ads are.  There has to be a better way, but that is another post for another day.

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What’s a sex offender worth?

“About four percent of the value of your home.”I marketed a house last year in a neighborhood housing a sex offender.  His presence most assuredly prevented at least two offers from being written.  Strictly anecdotally, this offender influenced the relative value of this property.  Referencing another study, the authors note:They find a reduction in housing prices of 17% within a tenth of a mile of an offender’s home, and find significant changes in price up to a third of a mile.  As with any study, if the data is inaccurate the results will be as well.  If the Freakonomics guys hadn’t remarked on the obvious nature of the study’s statement, I would have.These results suggest that individuals have a significant distaste for living in close proximity to a known sex offender.Shocking.  Search for sex offenders here and here.

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